Reviews and Views

2010: Ready or Not Here It Comes

Darryl Robert Schoon wrote an article on December 07, 2009. 

Constant prosperity through credit is not possible – perhaps temporarily but not permanently.  “Quantative Easing” is a monetary phenomena akin to self-abuse or self-stimulation.  In times of deep change, few will understand what is happening and instead of changing, most will persist in clinging to the old even as it is being swept away.  Events change but human nature rarely does – at least not yet.  We are now approaching the final stage of the collapse of the bankers’ house of cards; when debt levels are so high they can no longer be serviced, it will crush those still trapped by credit’s promissory lure.  We are already seeing evidence of deep systemic change.  The falling away of the old will make way for what is to be; and, despite our efforts, none of us can stop it.

January 1, 2010 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment

The Inevitable Decline of All Men…

OZYMANDIAS by Percy Bysshe Shelley (1817)

I met a traveler from an antique land
Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert.  Near them on the sand,
Half sunk, a shatter’d visage lies, whose frown
And wrinkled lip and sneer of cold command
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read
Which yet survive, stamp’d on these lifeless things,
The hand that mock’d them and the heart that fed.
And on the pedestal these words appear:
“My name is Ozymandias, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”
Nothing beside remains.  Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.

“Ozymandias” is frequently anthologized and is probably Shelley’s most famous short poem.  

The central theme of “Ozymandias” is the inevitable decline of all men, and of the empires they build, however mighty in their own time.

September 1, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment

Export Land Model

        This may be a good time to become familiar with the name of Jeffery Brown.  He is a Texas oilman, an independent petroleum geologist and manages a joint-venture exploration program.  Based in Dallas, he has created a forecast model that leads him to believe that we are headed toward a dramatic reduction in energy (oil) and sooner than you think.  Let me attempt to recap how the model works. 

1.  Assume an exporter country reaches its peak in oil production.  By the way, this reaching “peak” is occurring world-wide from most of the reserve info (an exception would be Saudi Arabia who doesn’t report). 
2. Assume domestic users within that exporter country consume 50% of all the oil produced in their country.  For some exporters that consumption is greater than 50%.
3. Assume a 5% annual NET decline rate in oil field production.  This is depletion which is reasonable 5% currently.
4. Assume a 2.5% annual increase in domestic consumption as their standard of living improves (i.e. more cars, larger homes, more electricity, more comforts, medical improvements, better housing, manufacturing, food production and longer lives).
5. The result is that this particular exporting country will reach ZERO exports in only 9 years (nine very short years).

         Today, this model can be seen playing out in Indonesia and the United Kingdom.  Jeffery Brown goes on to make the case that…

• NET exports from the current top 5 exporters could drop to ZERO by 2031 (within 21 years).  Those 5 top exporters are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
• We know Russia is now declining, Saudi Arabia has not exceeded their 2005 peak and UAE is unclear.
• New investment in the oil industry is insufficient to keep this decline from probably accelerating.
• A depression is currently unfolding in the energy industry.
• Net oil exports will continue to decline – soon a bidding war among importers will increase oil prices.  Brown thinks it could be as early as late 2009, but others point to the 2011-2012.
• People need to change their minds about continued economic growth.
• There needs to be a new low-energy society – where we walk or bicycle more – where we depend on each other in smaller communities.

To do so changes everything as we know it.  It could become very expensive and difficult to the Atlanta metro area for commuters.  See the entire article at http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2767, dated July 13, 2007.

August 23, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment

Debit Cards

Over half (58.2%) of all card transactions are now paid with debit cards.  According to the Nilson Report, credit cards account for 41.8%.  Of all card dollars spent, over 38% come from debit cards.  This is a significant rise of 26% from 2002.

Remember that debit cards and credit cards protections vary somewhat.  If you experience card fraud…

• Credit cards face a $50 maximum liability, regardless of when the card is reported lost or stolen.
• Debit cards face a $50 maximum liability, if reported within 48 hours.  However, if the lost debit card is reported 2 to 60 days after wards, you the card holder can be held accountable up to $500 for any fraudulent charges.  After 60 days, you can face unlimited losses.

See the complete article, “Debit Cards Overtake Credit Cards”, dated August 6, 2009 at http://www.wsj.com (the Wall Street Journal).

August 9, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment