Reviews and Views

Sea of Troubles

When consumers cut back on purchases, the eventual effect moves down stream over time.  Currently there is a “vast, swelling armada” lying idle.  Nearly 750 vessels are laid up in safe harbors in Asia.  These are all types of shipping – container ships, bulk carriers, tankers, car carrier, and others.  Another 280 ships are being sheltered in European waters.  It is estimated that “nearly 10% of the world’s merchant ships are anchored “because of a collapse in global trade.”

To make matters worse, “there is a huge supply of new ships on order and due off the slipways over the next four years” (2010 – 2013).  President of European Community Shipowners’ Associations estimate than “in June (2009) that shipping capacity would exceed the needs of the market by between 50% to 70% in the near future.”  Box trade (standard containers) is in the midst of its first decline.  It is estimated that “some 15% of capacity will be idle by October (2009).”  For example, “container rates have tumbled:  before last summer it cost $1,400 to move a container from China to Europe; today the rate is barely $400.”  When recovery does come to the global economy, a rapid expansion of container trade may not resume due to over capacity.

This recap comes from an article at The Economist (www.economist.com), “Sea of Troubles”, dated July 30, 2009.

August 8, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment

Residential Real Estate

In July 2005, homes in the U.S. sold for a median price of $227,800.  Most recent data from the National Association of Realtors reveals that homes sold for around $170,200 median price.  This is a 25% decline.

The inventory of homes in November 2006 reflected 7.2 months of supply.  Recently that inventory has risen to 10.2 months or over a 40% increase.

Farmland is being affected by the current economy.  For the first time in 21 years, the value of U.S. farm real estate fell.  The national average price of farm real estate (includes land and buildings) declined 3.2% in 2009 from last year.

Source:  August 6, 2009, Casey’s Daily Dispatch.

August 8, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment

Obama Administration’s Health Care Plan

For a copy of a summary of the Obama Administration’s Health Care Plan go to the following website

Click to access healthcare_overview_obama_072909.pdf

The highlights are provided by Liberty Counsel, a nationwide public interest religious civil liberties law firm.  There is something in it to scare just about anyone.

August 3, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment

Why a One World Currency is Inevitable

The world is being forced to a point of having to implement a one world currency.  At a minimum a one world currency among the major economies.  There are several reasons that taken together will show that this move is becoming inevitable.

1. The world economies are all linked together now.  None can stand alone whatsoever.  The idea of individual currencies is fading.
2. Interest rates are too low and push away capital.  The continued pushing of interest rates down have caused deflationary effects to emerge.  This is primarily through the work of the US Fed.  The lower the interest rate, the less capital means less investment.
3. Due to deflation, the world economy is poised to decline 2% in 2009, this is unheard of since World War 2.  Certain sectors will have greater contractions.  There is a drastically slowing of world economy afoot.
4. As world interest rates are synchronized to zero, this effectively creates a one world currency regime and the US dollar will be the facilitator of this process, even if itself is replaced in the end.
5. Look for competitive currency devaluations and probably trade wars.  As new financial crisis begin to emerge, some one-world currency will be moved in to fix the controversies.

(for the entire article by Christopher Laird, see http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2009/0729.html)

August 3, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment

Economic Health – miscellaneous comments

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital, July 31, 2009

There are many commentaries telling us that the recession is over.  If we are seeing a recovery from the recession, then Schiff says, “we are actually sinking into a depression.”  It is not unusual to have periods of false growth following recessions.  During the last boom, “we borrowed and spent too much money, bought goods we couldn’t afford, built houses we couldn’t carry, and developed a service sector economy completely dependent on consumer credit and rising asset prices.  All the while, we allowed our industrial base to crumble and our infrastructure to decay.  Schiff says, “we simply traded short-term gain for long-term pain.”

(from an article, “Happy Days Aren’t Here Again” at http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2009/0731.html)

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August 1, 2009 Posted by Bill Wyler | Economy | Leave a comment